Utility Automation & Engineering T&D - NERC: Winter electric reliability outlook generally good

Princeton, NJ, Nov. 19, 2008 -- The outlook for electric reliability in North America this winter is generally good, announced the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) in its 2008/2009 Winter Reliability Assessment. Generation and demand-side resources are expected to exceed target planning levels in all regions.

Demand for electricity and stress on the transmission system generally declines in North America during the winter months, primarily due to reduced air conditioning use. Much of Canada, however, typically experiences peak demand for electricity during the winter months due to electric heating. The resource outlook in Canada remains positive, said NERC, with resource margins expected to improve from 14 percent last winter to 16 percent this winter.

"Today's report shows that we expect to have enough electricity supply and demand-side resources to meet peak demand for the winter months under normal conditions," said Dave Nevius, senior vice president of NERC. "The possibility for outages due to unexpected equipment failure, human error, or severe weather always exists, but we believe the resources are in place to operate the system reliably this winter."

The report highlights several key factors that contribute to the favorable assessment for this winter:

Mild winter weather projected -- Perhaps the greatest influence on resource and fuel supply adequacy is winter weather. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, winter weather is projected to be relatively mild, with much of the central part of the continent expecting above average temperatures.

Demand response increases -- Approximately 28,000 MW of demand response is projected to be available across North America during the winter months, representing an increase of nearly 40 percent over last winter. As a result of this and the slowing economy, growth in demand for electricity has been limited to only 0.5 percent in 2008 over last year, compared to the average annual growth of 1.75 percent over the past three years.

Fuel inventories and availability improves -- Record levels of new natural gas pipeline and storage capacity in the U.S. have contributed to improved adequacy of the fuel supply and delivery system. Though current storage levels are below last year's high, natural gas is expected to be adequate for the winter. Coal stocks are above average in both the East and the West, with western utilities having an average of approximately 20 additional days of burn on hand compared to last winter.

Wind generation continues to grow significantly -- Nameplate wind capacity is projected to grow by 6,000 MW or 27 percent over the winter months to a total of 28,500 MW NERC-wide. Texas will see the greatest increase, with just under 4,000 MW scheduled for completion by March 2009. The availability of these resources at time of peak demand still requires further study, but is projected to range from 9 to 24 percent across North America.

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